Germany: Reports of troop concentrations.
The number of German troops in Northern Norway, viz., 3-4 divisions, is considered larger than is necessary for mere garrison purposes, but not excessive as a safeguard against a possible Russian move, or against a British landing which the Germans are said to expect. There is no definite indication of any change in the number of German divisions in this area or of any excessive amount of shipping in North Norwegian ports, such as might point to an expedition to Iceland, Ireland, or the North of Scotland.
Reports of invasion in the Spring – according to some sources in February – are being received in increasing numbers from various quarters. Many of them mention details of preparations, such as training of parachutists, manufacture of parachutes and of water and fire proof suits, the issue of British uniforms to German troops, and intensive manufacture of gas.
Two reports suggest that the main attack will come across the Channel, which will be closed at its narrowest point to form a lane of approach.
Reports of German troop concentrations in Belgium have also been received recently, but these are not confirmed.
Reports of tJhe presence of German troops are still conflicting, but it now seems probable that there are possibly 2 or 3 divisions, including armoured and motorised units, in Southern Italy and Sicily. Recent unconfirmed reports state that the Germans have taken over control of the port of Genoa and possibly of certain other Italian ports. German control of ports would doubtless be one of the conditions required if Germany intended to attack Malta or if an expedition to Tunisia or Libya were contemplated.
From the weekly Military Situation report, see TNA CAB/66/14/48